Preview: Arsenal Women vs Lyon | Key Stats & Predictions | UWCL Semi-Final First Leg
We look ahead to Saturday's UWCL clash at the Emirates with our Arsenal vs Lyon prediction and preview. Can the Gunners secure a first-leg advantage against the record eight-time European champions?
📅 Date: Saturday, 19th April 2025
⏰ Kick-off: 12:30 BST
📍 Venue: Emirates Stadium
📺 How to Watch: DAZN
🔍 Match Context & Overview
Arsenal host Olympique Lyonnais in what promises to be a thrilling first leg of their UEFA Women's Champions League semi-final clash. The Gunners enter this fixture on the back of impressive European form, while facing the daunting challenge of Lyon—the most successful club in the competition's history.
This heavyweight clash reunites two teams who previously met in the 2022 Champions League group stage, where Arsenal stunned Lyon 5-1 away before the French side exacted revenge with a 1-0 win at the Emirates. Both teams arrive at this stage boasting impressive European campaigns—Arsenal with their slick, possession-based approach, and Lyon with their devastating attacking efficiency.
With a place in the final at stake, Saturday's first leg at the Emirates could prove decisive in determining which team advances to the showpiece event.
🔴 Arsenal's European Campaign
Arsenal have impressed throughout their Champions League journey, demonstrating their technical quality and tactical intelligence. The Gunners have accumulated 19 goals in 8 matches (2.37 per 90) while maintaining a high possession average of 62% in the competition, second only to Barcelona's 74.9%.
Their offensive output has been impressive, generating 18.4 expected goals (xG) and 13.2 expected assists (xAG), combining for a potent 3.94 xG+xAG per 90 minutes. Arsenal's attack creates 24.12 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, demonstrating their capacity to generate quality opportunities.
Defensively, Arsenal have shown some vulnerability, conceding 11 goals from just 7.7 xG allowed, suggesting opponents have been clinical against them. Their goalkeeping situation presents a concern, with likely starter Manuela Zinsberger showing weaker statistics (2.67 goals conceded per 90, 52.9% save percentage) compared to the potentially unavailable Daphne van Domselaar.
🔵 Lyon's Dominance
Lyon arrive at the Emirates as the competition's most formidable force, having scored 24 goals (3.0 per 90) while conceding just 2 in their 8 matches—an astonishing defensive record backed by 6 clean sheets (75%). Their attacking metrics are equally impressive, generating 24.1 xG and 17.3 xAG for a combined 5.17 xG+xAG per 90 minutes.
Lyon's attacking volume is remarkable, creating 39.25 shot-creating actions per 90 and attempting 22 shots per match. Their possession game (58.1% average) is complemented by superior progressive actions (677 vs Arsenal's 590), highlighting their ability to advance into dangerous areas.
Lyon's defensive organisation remains their foundation, potentially strengthened by the return of Wendie Renard, who could make her 500th appearance for the club after missing the recent league draw with Paris FC through injury. Goalkeeper Christiane Endler has been exceptional, conceding just 0.25 goals per 90 minutes with an 81.8% save percentage and strong sweeper-keeper instincts (1.63 actions outside penalty area per 90).
🔥 Key Battle Areas
The clash presents fascinating tactical battles across the pitch. Arsenal's possession game (62% average, 84.5% pass completion) will face stern resistance from Lyon's superior ball recovery statistics (493 vs 411) and aerial dominance (66.7% success rate vs Arsenal's 52.7%).
In midfield, the contest between Arsenal's Kim Little (92.5% pass completion, 66 ball recoveries) and Lyon's Damaris Egurrola (37 tackles+interceptions, 52 recoveries) will be crucial in determining which team controls the tempo.
The wide areas present another critical battleground, with Katie McCabe (58 crosses, 3 assists) facing the defensive quality of Ellie Carpenter (15 tackles, 23 tackles+interceptions, 31 crosses). Lyon's superior crossing volume (226 vs 180) suggests they'll look to exploit the flanks.
Key Stats:
Arsenal Champions League record: P8 W5 D0 L3, GF19 GA11, Points 15
Lyon Champions League record: P8 W7 D1 L0, GF24 GA2, Points 22
Arsenal average possession: 62.0% (second-highest in competition, behind Barcelona's 74.9%)
Lyon average possession: 58.1%
Arsenal shots per 90: 14.12 (42.5% on target)
Lyon shots per 90: 22.0 (38.6% on target)
Arsenal goals per 90: 2.37
Lyon goals per 90: 3.0
🏆 Head-to-Head History
Arsenal and Lyon have met twice previously in the 2022 Champions League group stage, with each team winning once:
Lyon 1-5 Arsenal (Oct 19, 2022): A stunning display from Arsenal featuring goals from Beth Mead (2) and Caitlin Foord (2)
Arsenal 0-1 Lyon (Dec 15, 2022): Lyon secured revenge at the Emirates through Melvine Malard's goal
These previous encounters highlight the unpredictable nature of this fixture, with both teams capable of producing statement performances.
🔎 Players to Watch
Alessia Russo (Arsenal)
Arsenal's leading scorer in Europe with 6 goals from 22 shots (68.2% on target), outperforming her xG by 2.2. Her clinical finishing will be crucial against Lyon's formidable defence.
Mariona Caldentey (Arsenal)
A complete performer with 5 goals (including 1 penalty), 17 key passes, and impressive defensive contribution (24 tackles+interceptions, 16 blocks). Her tactical intelligence allows her to influence games in multiple phases.
Kadidiatou Diani (Lyon)
Lyon's attacking threat with 5 goals and 4 assists, creating 2.7 xAG and 14 key passes. Her combination of pace, creativity, and finishing ability makes her a constant danger.
Melchie Dumornay (Lyon)
A creative dynamo generating an incredible 48 shot-creating actions (7.18 per 90) leading to 9 goal-creating actions. Her ability to unlock defences will test Arsenal's defensive organisation.
Christiane Endler (Lyon)
Lyon's world-class goalkeeper has conceded just 2 goals in 8 matches (0.25 per 90) while maintaining an 81.8% save percentage and 6 clean sheets. Her presence provides Lyon with exceptional security.
📌 Prediction
Based on comprehensive statistical analysis and considering team news, we forecast:
Arsenal win: 32%
Lyon win: 42%
Draw: 26%
Key Factors:
Lyon's exceptional defensive record (just 2 goals conceded in 8 matches)
Arsenal's potentially weakened goalkeeper situation
Lyon's superior attacking metrics (3.0 goals per 90 vs Arsenal's 2.37)
Arsenal's home advantage
The importance of the first leg in a two-legged tie
Arsenal will need to capitalise on home advantage to secure a positive result before the challenging second leg at Groupama Stadium. The Gunners' possession game may allow them to control periods, but Lyon's devastating attack and defensive solidity make them slight favourites.
📢 Have Your Say!
Can Arsenal secure a first-leg advantage against the record European champions? Which key player battles will decide this clash of styles?
Drop your predictions in the comments!